Developing a Bankruptcy Prediction Model for Banks and Financial Institutions Using Recurrent Neural Networks and Financial Soundness Indicators
This study aimed to develop a conceptual-analytical model for predicting bankruptcy in banks and financial institutions using recurrent neural networks and financial soundness indicators from the perspective of banking, financial, and fintech experts. This study employed a qualitative exploratory design. The participants consisted of 22 banking experts, risk managers, financial analysts, fintech specialists, university faculty members, and supervisory experts in Tehran, selected through purposive and snowball sampling. Data were collected using semi-structured interviews and continued until theoretical saturation was achieved. The data were analyzed through thematic analysis using NVivo software. To enhance the trustworthiness of the findings, member checking, peer coding, constant comparison, analytical memoing, and an audit trail were used. Data analysis resulted in five main categories: fundamental indicators of financial soundness, quality and integration of banking data, the capability of recurrent neural networks in identifying hidden temporal patterns, governance and explainability of prediction models, and implementation requirements for an early-warning system in the banking sector. Participants emphasized that capital adequacy, asset quality, liquidity, profitability, maturity mismatch, non-performing loans, loan concentration, and cash-flow volatility should be analyzed as time-series indicators. LSTM and GRU models were considered suitable because of their ability to learn temporal dependencies and detect gradual financial deterioration before formal failure. The findings indicate that bank bankruptcy prediction cannot rely solely on static financial ratios; rather, it requires the integration of financial soundness indicators, sequential data, deep learning algorithms, human supervisory judgment, and model governance mechanisms. The proposed model may provide a foundation for developing early-warning systems, improving banking risk management, and strengthening financial stability.